The run towards the end of the 2018 European Tour season starts with the first ‘play-off’ event, the Turkish Airlines Open. 78 players tee it up, with Justin Rose and Tommy Fleetwood heading the market. Thorbjorn Olesen is the course specialist, winning here in 2016 and 5th last year.
Download Excel Odds Sheet: GolfOdds.Info – TURKISH AIRLINES OPEN 2018
We are looking at another very low winning score this week, Olesen’s victory was at 20-under, and last year Rose prevailed at 18-under.
Tom Lewis is an easy pick. We backed him when he last teed it up at the British Masters, and he obliged with placing 5th. That was the culmination of a hot streak of golf that saw him secure his European Tour playing privileges with his win at the Portugal Masters. We were on him that week, here’s a reminder of what I posted:
Tom Lewis is an obvious choice based on his recent Challenge Tour form (won 2 weeks ago in Luton, 3rd last week in Kazakhstan). For these 8 rounds he’s an incredible 44-under par, and they’re playing on a track this week that lends itself to low numbers. He’s a past winner on this course back in 2011, and he does offer value as well. The 60/1 is gone, but the 50/1 paying the 1st 8 places is still a good price.
Lewis is happy going low and he posted a top-10 at Turkish Airlines Challenge back in April. I make him about a 25/1 chance with 40/1 generally available.
Another player on a good run of form is Italian Andrea Pavan. His maiden win at The D+D Real Czech Masters (shooting 22-under) was followed by an understandable missed cut in the Swiss Alps, but since then he’s finished 20/5/16 and T22 last week in China.
Two more players are worth selecting:
Ryan Fox is a player I keep coming back to, but he can shoot low numbers and he offers value. In the last 3 months he’s had 2 missed cuts by just one shot, with top-30 finishes in his 5 other starts. Clearly not playing badly, and an attacking player who can go low (18-under 3rd to Sharma at the Maybank back in February).
Lee Westwood didn’t make the trip to China, and he comes into this after 5th at Valderrama. It’s been a quiet year so far for the veteran Englishman now based in Edinburgh, with the highlight so far shooting 18-under for 2nd place at the Made In Denmark where he lost out in the play-off.
He knows the course and only a poor back 9 on Sunday last year stopped him from getting amongst the places. His inward half of 39 was 2 shots higher than anyone who finished T20 or better, and nearly four shots worse than the average of 35.18 for the top 22 players.
Tom Lewis – 1pt ew @ 41.00 (1/5 1st 6 Boyles, BetStars)
Andrea Pavan – 0.75pt ew @ 51.00 (1/4 1st 5 Unibet, 888Sport)
Ryan Fox – 0.75pt ew @ 67.00 (1/4 1st 5 various)
Lee Westwood – 0.5pt ew @ 51.00 (1/5 1st 6 Boyles)