So, the last event of 2018 for me is the Alfred Dunhill Championship. We’ve got a 156 player field that includes European journeymen and seasoned Sunshine tour veterans, coming together with recent Big Easy Tour winners and Challenge Tour graduates. Throw in a smattering of top-100 players and there’s your list to tackle the Leopard Creek course.
Download Excel Odds Sheet: GolfOdds.Info – Alfred Dunhill Championship 2018
The course itself is a definite home player favourite, with South Africans dominant, in particular Charl Schwartzel, a 4-time winner on this layout. This course form means Schwartzel’s price is cut to single figures, and not a price to get involved with.
Schwartzel hasn’t won since the Valspar Championship at the start of 2016. He’s never been a great putter, just average at best, and I get the impression that the power game that has gained in popularity this decade is turning the South African into a one hit major winner. That Masters winning year in 2011 saw Schwartzel finish the season ranked 43rd in driving distance on the PGA Tour at 297.0 yards. Fast forward to the 2018 season just ended and he’s increased his overall DD by 2.5 yards, yet he’s now in 65th place. Not that significant, but enough to make him more of an average hitter distance wise. Add in a downturn in his iron play as well, and his game is not going in the right direction.
Shaun Norris has forged a successful career in Asia after a not too successful stint on the European Tour in 2011. Four wins in the last 3 years on the Asian and Japanese Tours (most recently 4 weeks ago) have given Norris a massive boost up the OWGR, where he currently sits 74th (Schwartzel is 75th).
This year has been Norris’s most consistent to date, with 12 top-10s (including the win) from 33 starts. He’s massively overpriced on the exchanges.
Dane Jeff Winther has enjoyed several good performances in South Africa over the years, and he comes into this week after 7th place on Sunday at Randpark.
I’ll take a chance as well on David Drysdale. He withdrew last week from the SA Open after injuring his arm on an electric gate, but it was nothing too serious according to his wife and caddy Victoria.
Drysdale has some excellent course form here, and although it’s difficult to see him winning, his recent form has also been eye catching with a 5th place in Hong Kong.
Another Scot I’ll side with this week is Robert MacIntyre. I last backed him at the Ras Al Khaimah Challenge Tour Grand Final, where he just finished outside the places. Worth an interest.
Shaun Norris – 1pt win @ 100.00 (Betfair)
Jeff Winther – 1pt win @ 140.00 (Betfair)
David Drysdale – 0.5pt win @ 150.00 (Betfair)
Robert MacIntyre – 0.5pt win @ 290.00 (Betfair)
Shaun Norris – 1pt @ 6.50 (various)
Jeff Winther – 1pt @ 8.50 (various)
David Drysdale – 1pt @ 11.00 (various)
Robert MacIntyre – 0.5pt @ 17.00 (various)