First off a Happy New Year to everyone. I won’t be doing anything too different to what I already do, just gradual, small tweaks here and there to improve profitability. I make a profit long term by finding value so why change!?
I’m a bit late looking at this first event due to some technical issues – both my laptops decided to take an enforced break within a few days of each other. I’m always one to look for positives, and the new desktop PC I’ve acquired is much faster so I’m up and running again. Just with two laptops to fix/rebuild.
So, on to the parade of 2018 PGA Tour winners, otherwise known as the Sentry Tournament of Champions. Everyone knows the picturesque Plantation Course and how it plays, so with time short, I’ll skip over any description.
The usual reports can be found here, including my calculated odds, course form and recent results:
Download Excel Odds Sheet: GolfOdds.Info – Sentry Tournament of Champions 2019
What is noteworthy is Rory McIlroy starting here for the first time. It will be interesting to see how he performs, but avoid backing him as he’s no value whatsoever. Another making his debut here is Cameron Champ. With his length he will always be on the radar, but like McIlroy, absolutely no value here. Remember he’s teeing it up amongst the world’s best this week. Only Rose (testing his new clubs) and Finau (consistent high finishes but no wins) are the only two players absent from the world’s top-10.
One player who offers massive value is Aussie Marc Leishman. He lead after two rounds here last year before a 3rd round 76 costs him any chance of winning. He’s definitely one of the form players in the field, with 2nd place behind Cameron Smith at the Australian PGA Championship 4 weeks ago.
Keegan Bradley hasn’t made it here since finishing 4th at the weather affected 2013 running of this event. Tropical storms caused delays that year, resulting in 36 holes played on the scheduled Monday finish, with a final 18 holes on the Tuesday. His play-off win over Rose at the BMW Championship was the culmination of consistent golf throughout 2018, with just 2 missed cuts from 27 starts. With the bookmakers’ taking no chances on the top 10 or so players in the betting, Bradley offers some value.
The reason Scott Piercy is here is due to his win at the team event that is The Zurich Classic of New Orleans (with Billy Horshel). It’s a bit flimsy to me, but he’s here by rights, and he enjoyed some good performances to close out his 2018, finishing with 3 straight top-10s. While that was in obviously weaker fields than this, it was only back in 2016 that he was finishing runner-up to Dustin Johnson in the US Open and finishing 2nd at Bridgestone in the WGC two months later. He’s also enjoyed strong performances in Hawaii, most recently 2nd behind Jimmy Walker at Sony Open in 2015. He knows the course and there’s far worse value in this field this week, so definitely worth some interest.
Various (1/4 1st 4)
BlackType (1/4 1st 4)
BlackType (1/4 1st 4)